Sea level rise and its impact on global infrastructure
A recent study from McGill University warns of the risk of periodic flooding facing more than 100 million buildings in the Global South if urgent action is not taken to reduce fossil fuel emissions. The research, published in the journal npj Urban Sustainability, is the first to comprehensively assess, building by building, how rising sea levels will affect coastal infrastructure in regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America.
Using satellite maps and elevation data, the team of researchers estimated how many buildings could be affected by different levels of sea rise over the next few centuries. Professor Natalya Gomez, co-author of the study, stressed that sea level rise is a consequence of global warming that is already impacting coastal communities and will continue to do so in the future.
“There is talk of a rise in sea level of tens of centimeters, or even a meter, but in reality it could continue to rise many meters if we do not stop burning fossil fuels quickly,” Gomez said. This scenario is alarming, considering that with an increase of just 0.5 meters, which is expected to occur even with significant efforts to reduce emissions, around three million buildings could be at risk of flooding.
The study data indicates that in scenarios where sea level rise reaches five meters or more, the situation becomes critical. In this case, more than 100 million buildings would be exposed to flooding, affecting not only homes but also essential infrastructure such as ports, refineries and cultural heritage sites.
Consequences for coastal communities
The investigation highlights that many of these buildings are located in low-lying and densely populated areas, which increases the risk for entire neighborhoods. Professor Jeff Cardile, also a co-author of the study, expressed surprise at the number of buildings at risk due to relatively moderate long-term sea level rise. “Some coastal countries are much more exposed than others, due to coastal topography and the location of buildings,” he noted.
The study's findings are crucial for urban planners and policymakers seeking to prepare their communities for inevitable sea level rise. The interactive map created by the researchers, available through Google Earth Engine, allows decision makers to visualize the most vulnerable regions. This tool can be instrumental in developing climate adaptation strategies, including building protective infrastructure and adapting land use planning.
The research also raises the need to consider managed retreat in some areas, where the threat of flooding is imminent. This approach may be necessary to protect the most vulnerable communities and ensure the long-term sustainability of existing infrastructure.
The McGill University study adds to a growing global concern about the impact of climate change on coastal communities. Scientific evidence supports the urgency of action, and the data presented provides a solid basis for informed decision-making. The situation is becoming increasingly critical, and communities must prepare to face a future where sea level rise will be a constant reality.
The research concludes that immediate action is essential to mitigate these risks, and that urban planning must adapt to new climate realities. Professor Gomez emphasizes that “time is running out” and that it is essential to act now to protect coastal communities.
More than 100 million buildings could be at risk of flooding if fossil fuel emissions are not curbed.
